Thinking about tomorrow’s voting, and planning for 4 possible contingencies:

1. Hillary is nominated, Trumpcruzkasich wins in November.

2. Bernie is nominated, Trumpcruzkasich wins.

3. Bernie is nominated, and wins.

4. Hillary is nominated and wins.

1: We are all really screwed. Bernie fans feel vindicated, populists everywhere rejoice, Democratic party falls into soul-searching mode, fingers are pointed and the party possibly splits; centrism, moderation and openness are dead for a long while. Violence is certainly on the rise, the planet continues to warm, if no significant war is started, the revolution we’ve been long warned about is increasingly possible. We are all really screwed.

2: We are still pretty screwed, but Democrats and Hillary join forces with Bernie’s people to obstruct Republicans the way Republicans did with Obama in 2009, civic participation increases like it did in Bush years, and possibly there is left comeback in 2-3-4 years, taking Senate/Congress, though Supreme Court will be solidly right wing for many years into the future, thwarting most attempts to undo the damage.

3. Just like Obama, Bernie says nice things and pulls off moderate incremental successes and shields us from the worst, with help of the rest of the Democrats, but he will not get much done with Republican Congress and Senate. His fans, however, get pissed off, just like they did when Obama did not bring about immediate change. The thinking that voting doesn’t matter, and that “direct action “ is preferable will keep growing. #Occupy might be revived, along with #BLM, but more violent this time around. Since Bernie now is responsible for maintaining the order and growth, he will have to do something about it. It won’t be pretty for the civil society and democracy. Most importantly, all hope will now be gone.

4. Things will continue mostly as they are now. There will be more incremental changes, going insufficiently quickly for Bernie fans, but I trust Hillary to not completely alienate them (very liberal Supreme Court nominees is one way to do it), and they will be able to coalesce into a true political force, keep pushing Democrats to the left, and help get Congress and Senate back. The hope will remain alive, with Bernie and whoever else emerges to continue what he started. The gentle revolution that Bernie wants would  actually be possible. This is the best possible outcome.

As with everything, voting for Hillary carries the greatest risk and the best reward. 1, 2 and 3 are all pretty awful, so I will hope for 4 and vote accordingly.